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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
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Streaming is also becoming part of the product. Monk said prediction market interfaces had moved beyond their earlier trading-led presentation to incorporate streams, player propositions and combinations resembling sportsbook bet builders.
“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”
Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”
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Jonas projected on Friday (Sept. 18) in his Las Vegas room survey a soft third quarter. Jonas said Q3 rates for Las Vegas Strip casino rooms are “mostly lower,” with MGM Resorts rooms down 9% and Caesars Entertainment down 11%.
August rates trended lower, with Strip Proxy down -14%, MGM -17%, Caesars -18%, and Wynn Resorts flat. September is also lower with Strip Proxy down -10%, MGM -11%, Caesars -15% and Wynn +2%, as weekend rates were a bit higher but weighed down by the still soft weekday rates,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas said October is showing some signs of life, but November is mixed at this point.